Wednesday, November 5, 2008

CBOHIO VARSITY STATE FINAL FOUR PREVIEW

Here's our guide to the state final four starting tomorrow, along with our prediction for how it will all turn out:
DIVISION TWO
Match #1-Parma Padua Franciscan (24-3) v. Mansfield Madison Comprehensive (26-2)
The storyline: Padua Franciscan came out of nowhere over the summer to earn some preseason hype and they lived up to it. For Madison Comprehensive, their a brand name in the volleyball world, a traditionally strong program that has state tournament success to boast--they won the D1 title in 1997. Madison has wins over several ranked opponents this year, including Orrville and Bowling Green, with their losses coming against ranked Orrville and ranked Findlay. For Padua Franciscan they clearly faced the tougher schedule and own wins over ranked teams like Holy Name, Walsh Jesuit (twice), Lake Catholic (twice), Mentor and Huron with losses to Magnificat, Lake Catholic, and Holy Name.
Our prediction: Look for this to be an evenly matched semi-final with no clear favorite. Both teams have shown moments of weakness and neither are dominant. Madison Comprehensive is young and that youth may not respond well to the big stage of the state tournament, though a strong win against Celina in regional finals makes us give them the edge in this semi-final.
Our pick: Mansfield Madison Comprehensive

Match #2-Kettering Archbishop Alter (19-7) v. Columbus Bishop Hartley (22-5)
The storyline: Alter turned D2 on its ear when it defeated #1 Tippecanoe in regional semi-finals. A seven loss Alter team is not the norm, but no one can claim it's a real shock. Alter plays in the GGCL, has one of the best programs in the state, and has won multiple state titles this decade. For Bishop Hartley they are returning to state for the second consecutive year. Last season they defeated Tippecanoe in a real battle in the semi-finals before falling to Toledo Central Catholic in the championship. They have no significant wins this season, really, except Roger Bacon and Salem, but they fell to Bishop Watterson three times this season, along with Pickerington North and Wooster Triway.
Our prediction: Don't expect Hartley to go away easily, but don't look for them to be able to defeat Alter, who seemed to find their groove in the tournament. Alter's tough schedule prepares them for the big games like this and they will be an intimidating force.
Our pick: Alter

Championship Match: Mansfield Madison Comprehensive v. Kettering Archbishop Alter
Our pick: Kettering Archbishop Alter
Your pick: Kettering Archbishop Alter with 68% support from our readers!

DIVISION ONE
Match #3-Olmsted Falls (27-0) v. Brecksville-Broadsview Heights (21-4)
The storyline: Olmsted Falls has had hype surrounding them all season long and features a talented team trying to become the first non-private school to win a title in many years. They have played a pretty tough schedule and have come through it unscathed, although they barely survived a test from TSUA in regional semi-finals. They have wins against TSUA (twice), Walsh Jesuit, and Rocky River Magnificat, to name a few, but most significantly, the hold two wins over their competition in this match. They've beaten Brecksville-Broadsview Hts. twice already. With that said, BBH did not compete strongly against Olmsted Falls in those regular season matches, though now anything is possible. BBH was one of the suprises of the season, ascending to #10 in our poll with wins over Holy Name, Stow Munroe-Falls, and Cloverleaf.
Our prediction: If the team that struggled against TSUA in regionals shows up, then BBH might be able to put a scare into Olmsted Falls. However, OF is the clear favorite and should roll on to the title match.
Our pick: Olmsted Falls

Match #4-Cincinnati Ursuline (27-0) v. Cincinnati Mount Notre Dame (23-4)
The storyline: We couldn't ask for a better matchup than this one. The third meeting between GGCL rivals! Ursuline defeated MND in four during their first meeting of the season, but in the second meeting, it was a significant battle, with Ursuline holding on for an 18-16 fifth game finish. Both teams feature the signature, tradition-rich, and collegiate-level of play with strong fan bases that provide for some of the best atmosphere at the tournament. Both teams also play brutal schedules during the season and are used to whatever the other brings to the court.
Our prediction: Look for an all-out war. MND has the advantage of having been to the state final four the past four seasons, including being champs in 2006 and runners-up last season. Coach Donna Mechley is also the more experienced coach out of the two, having won titles with MND in 95, 98, 99, 00, and 06. Ursuline's program is no slouch, winning it last in 2002, but this is the first appearance at Ursuline for Coach Case.
Our pick: Close, but we are going with #1 Cincinnati Ursuline

Championship Match: Cincinnati Ursuline v. Olmsted Falls
Our pick: Cincinnati Ursuline
Your pick: Cincinnati Ursuline with 73% of our readers' votes!

DIVISION FOUR
Match #5-Newark Catholic (26-1) vs. Marion Local (24-3)
The storyline: This is a rematch of last season's state semi-final, which Marion Local ran away with 25-9, 25-13, 25-14. Marion Local lost a lot off of last year's team and aren't nearly as tall, but they are still strong, and they have been tested. They had to get through a favored New Bremen team in a five-game battle in district semi's and almost lost to MAC rival Ft. Recovery in sectionals. They won the vaunted Convoy Crestview Invite this season, a primer for the state tournament, where they defeated Celina for the title and won against Milan Edison. They also beat St. Henry twice, Lehman Catholic, Parkway, Anna, and Minster. For Newark Catholic, they've had a strong showing this season, though cannot boast a win list like ML. They only have one loss and claimed signature wins over Heath (twice), Big Walnut, Anthony Wayne, Tuscarawas Central Catholic, and South Webster. Their only loss was to Milan Edison, the only common opponent they share with Marion Local.
Our prediction: This won't be an easy three-game win for Marion Local like last season as the landscape of the teams has completely changed. Marion Local struggled early in the tournament before having an easy regional path. They are vulnerable. Still, Newark Catholic will be facing a daunting task against a tested MAC opponent where blocking and defense usually drive non-MAC teams crazy.
Our pick: Marion Local

Match #6-Buckeye Central (25-2) vs. Jackson Center (26-1)
The storyline: Jackson Center is making their second consecutive appearance at the final four, while Buckeye Central has found its way back for the first time since back-to-back trips in 2000 and 2001. Buckeye Central, while tradition-rich, has been the surprise team of the season and handed #3 Norwalk St. Paul a shocking defeat in district finals, denying NSP another round in the final four. Their losses are suspect--Riverdale and Hopewell-Loudon. Their wins and their schedule is weak with no big wins, although they have to be decent to beat NSP in four. For Jackson Center, they are a favorite for the title, easily. Their only loss, a close battle with #1 in D3, L.C.C. Wins? Anna (twice), Marion Local, New Bremen.
Our prediction: While BC may have beaten NSP, Jackson Center is playing well, is highly talented, and is tested from their regular season schedule. JC should dominate this match.
Our pick: Jackson Center

Championship Match: Jackson Center vs. Marion Local
Our pick: Marion Local
Your pick: Jackson Center has 44% of our readers' votes, with ML close behind at 37%.

DIVISION THREE
Match #7-Lima Central Catholic (25-1) vs. Gilmour Academy (26-1)
The storyline: LCC is back to defend the D3 title they won last season. They had to survive a strong challenge from St. Henry in regional finals, winning in five, although St. Henry's best player went out after the first play in game one, leading us to believe St. Henry may have rolled to a win. Regardless, they are back and they are tough, but maybe not as tough as last season. They can showcase impressive wins over teams like Milan Edison, Jackson Center, Convoy Crestview, Columbus Grove, Lehman Catholic, Anna, Heath and of course St. Henry. Their only loss was to another state team, Kettering Archbishop Alter. Gilmour Academy will bring state experience to the table as well since they were here last season too. They lost a heartbreaker to Albany Alexander, 16-14, in the fifth game. They might be flying under the radar. Their one loss came against Wooster, while they boast wins against Berkshire (three times), New Middletown Springfield, Walsh Jesuit, Tiffin Columbian, and won a thriller against #3 West Salem Northwestern, 15-13, in their regional final.
Our prediction: This one could be close and we could see an upset. Gilmour Academy won't be nervous since they were there last year and all the pressure is on LCC to repeat. While LCC played a much tougher regular season schedule, Gilmour proved to be steady all season long.
Our pick: Lima Central Catholic

Match #8-Albany Alexander (26-1) v. Versailles (21-7)
The storyline: Versailles had an identity crisis most of the season. They couldn't decide if they wanted to be a top-echelon team, but they must have decided to when tourney season came along. Playing in the always-tough MAC, Versailles won only three matches, losing to teams they shouldn't have lost to. Still, they can highlight their win over Marion Local this season, as well as other wins against tough teams like Fort Recovery, Columbus Bishop Ready, Delphos St. John's, and Lehman Catholic. Alexander can boast about a lot more. They lost to Celina early-on, but haven't lost since, claiming wins along the way that included St. Henry, Wooster Triway, Warsaw River View, Frankfort Adena, and Marion Pleasant. They are making their third consecutive trip to the state final four and lost last season to LCC in the championship.
Our prediction: Alexander should be able to defeat Versailles in their semi-final, though Alexander's own coach (see our story feature on Alexander) admits that Versailles' conference better prepares them for this match. Versailles will block and play strong defense and be very athletic. That will keep them in this match.
Our pick: Albany Alexander

Championship Match: Albany Alexander vs. Lima Central Catholic
Our pick: Albany Alexander
Your pick: LCC gets a dominant 55% of our readers' votes, with Alexander at 23%.

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